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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Business
Bay area a property mega-market in waiting
    2017-August-28  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

THE Greater Bay Area plan will especially benefit seven smaller satellite cities in the Pearl River Delta region, potentially creating a real estate market worth 9.6 trillion yuan (US$1.44 trillion), Morgan Stanley said in a latest research report.

The region of nine cities in Guangdong Province, including Guangzhou and Shenzhen, plus Hong Kong and Macao, will grow from the current population of 68 million to 86 million people within 14 years, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Cities naturally expand outward as their populations grow,” analysts including Robin Xing and Jenny Zheng in Hong Kong wrote in the report. “But whether this expansion evolves haphazardly or is carefully planned makes a crucial difference to future economic growth. The Central Government is leaving little to chance in the Greater Bay Area.”

They project the highest population and property market growth over that period will be in seven smaller satellite cities, such as Huizhou, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing, potentially creating there a real estate market worth 9.6 trillion yuan with some 640 million square meters of living space. The delta-area population rose by 1.24 million last year alone — about the size of Brussels or Dallas.

Morgan Stanley’s stock analysts recommend shares of companies with high exposure to the region, citing Country Garden Holdings, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, Yuexiu Property, Agile Group Holdings and CIFI Holdings Group.

The nation’s top economic planners said Aug. 18 they’ll release a Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area master plan by year-end. Local and central government officials signed a development framework agreement July 1.

China’s development model will “change from supercities to city clusters,” the analysts wrote. “It enhances the competitiveness of the region if the hub and satellite cities are positioned well.”

That approach will reduce overpopulation in hub cities, and urban railways will become a key means of transportation, saving energy, reducing pollution and easing traffic congestion, they wrote, citing initiatives such as Guangdong’s plan to quadruple its intercity urban rail network by 2030.

Gross domestic product in the region is estimated to more than triple from US$1.38 trillion last year to US$4.62 trillion by 2030, surpassing the Tokyo, New York and San Francisco metropolitan areas, Xinhua reported last month.

History shows that rising populations in those three regions came mainly from inflows to satellite cities, driven by better infrastructure connecting hub cities with satellites, as well as government policy, according to Morgan Stanley.

Key risks to that outlook include coordination problems between local governments, further property policy tightening, and delays to the Central Government’s development plan, the analysts said.

(SD-Agencies)

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