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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Business
Yuan loans strong, but growth may have peaked
    2017-September-18  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

BANKS in China extended more credit than expected in August, buoyed by demand from homebuyers and companies, but there are signs that credit growth may have reached a peak as tighter monetary conditions filter into the broader economy.

Chinese banks extended 1.09 trillion yuan (US$166.5 billion) in net new yuan loans in August, central bank data showed Friday, well above analysts’ expectations.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans of 900 billion yuan, up from 825.5 billion yuan in July.

“Today’s data are consistent with our view that, having reached a peak during the current business cycle in mid-2016, broad credit growth is now on a downward trajectory,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics’ China economist, said in a report.

Yan Ling, a Shenzhen-based analyst at Merchants Securities, said a gradual slowdown in credit growth, coupled with a steady rise in borrowing costs, could weigh on the economy in the fourth quarter but the expected slowdown may be modest.

Household loans, mostly mortgages, rose to 663.5 billion yuan in August from 561.6 billion yuan in July, according to Reuters calculations based on the central bank’s data.

Household loans accounted for 61 percent of total new loans last month, down from 68 percent in July.

Short-term household loans in August doubled from July to 216.5 billion yuan, reflecting a surge in consumer lending as some homebuyers may have turned to short-term consumer loans due to curbs on mortgages, analysts said.

Corporate loans climbed to 483 billion yuan in August from 353.5 billion yuan in July.

Broad M2 money supply (M2) in August grew 8.9 percent from a year earlier, hitting a fresh low since records began in 1996 and missing forecasts for an expansion of 9.1 percent and compared with July’s 9.2 percent.

China’s central bank has said that the slowing M2 growth could be a “new normal” due to the stepped-up crackdown on risky shadow lending activities.

Total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, rose to 1.48 trillion yuan in August from 1.22 trillion yuan in July, the data showed.

Some economists had expected an increase in the TSF to 1.3 trillion yuan.

Combined trust loans, entrusted loans and undiscounted bankers’ acceptances, which are common forms of shadow banking activity, rose by 130.3 billion yuan in August, versus a fall of 64.4 billion yuan in July, according to Reuters calculations.

In its second-quarter policy report, the central bank said it would strike a balance between deleveraging and maintaining stable liquidity, suggesting policymakers were keen to keep the economy on an even keel.

Regulatory tightening has moderated somewhat amid signs that a surge in money market interest rates earlier this year are trickling down to the real economy, and authorities appear unlikely to tap the brakes any further in the near future. (SD-Agencies)

 

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