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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Business
September data to show steady economic growth
    2017-October-9  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

ECONOMIC data in coming weeks are expected to deliver exactly what the government has worked for — China’s economic growth remains robust and resilient despite the clampdown to get debt risks under control.

So far this year, the world’s second-biggest economy has held up better than expected despite views that control on riskier types of financing and a flurry of measures to cool heated housing prices will drag on activity.

Economists polled recently expect China’s economy is heading into the fourth quarter with plenty of momentum.

Growth in industrial output is expected to accelerate to 6.2 percent from a year earlier, from August’s 6 percent, according to a latest poll of 24 economists.

Steel mills are believed to be running at full steam to cash in on strong demand and prices and to build up inventories in case they are ordered to reduce output over winter.

Fixed-asset investment is predicted to have increased 7.7 percent in the first three quarters year on year, only slightly softer than a 7.8 percent rise in the January-August period.

Retail sales growth is seen edging up to 10.2 percent year on year.

China’s trade performance is also expected to improve after softer-than-expected readings in August raised questions about the sustainability of its domestic and export demand.

Exports are expected to have risen 8.8 percent year on year, while imports may have jumped 13.5 percent, producing a trade surplus of US$39.5 billion.

September’s loan data will be closely watched for signs of where policy may be going next, as banks have shifted more credit back onto their books in response to the clampdown on shadow financing. Banks are seen extending 1.1 trillion yuan (US$165.33 billion) in new loans in September, up from 1.09 trillion yuan in August.

Credit growth could get an extra boost in coming months after the central bank Sept. 30 cut the amount of cash that some banks must hold as reserves for the first time since February 2016. The move is linked with a policy to encourage more lending to struggling smaller firms and the private sector.

It could trigger a flurry of lending as banks look to qualify for lower reserve requirement ratios (RRR) which go into effect in 2018, though some analysts believe the impact on the economy may be tempered if the government continues its campaign to rein in debt risks at the same time.

“We believe the RRR cut may not lead to a quick pickup in total credit growth if policymakers continue to strictly enforce the Macro Prudential Assessment (MPA) framework and the new rules related to the financial system cleanup,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients.

Inflation data may also offer clues on firms’ debt-servicing capability.

The producer price index (PPI) is tipped to have risen 6.3 percent in September year on year, steady from August.

The consumer price index (CPI) meanwhile is seen up 1.6 percent year on year in September, versus 1.8 percent in August and well within the government’s 2017 target of 3 percent.

China is due to announce trade data Friday and inflation data Oct. 16 respectively, while loan and money data are expected anytime from today to Sunday.

The data will lead up to third quarter gross domestic product Oct. 19. China’s economy grew 6.9 percent in the first half, and is expected to easily meet or beat the government’s full-year target of around 6.5 percent.

(SD-Agencies)

 

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