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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Speak Shenzhen
Japan becomes a ‘demographic time bomb’
    2017-November-6  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

Japan is dealing with what economists call a “demographic time bomb.”

Through a vicious cycle of low fertility and low consumer spending, the country’s economy has gradually shrunk over the last 25 years. People are living longer, and they’re heaping greater social-security costs onto younger generations who aren’t having kids to replace them — thereby further exacerbating the cycle.

In 2016, there were roughly 65,000 centenarians out of the total population of 127 million. The new total for 2017 stands at 67,824, the Asahi Shimbun reported in September. Japan has the highest rate of centenarians out of any country, with 4.8 per 100,000 people. The United States, the country with the most overall, has 2.2 per 100,000.

Ever since 2011, sales of adult diapers in Japan have outpaced those of baby diapers.

The trend reflects just how big the cohort of senior citizens is. People over 65 make up a larger demographic than any other in Japan. Of the 127.11 million people, about 26.7 percent of them are seniors.

Ever since 1899, the annual number of births in Japan had exceeded 1 million — until 2016. When government officials conducted a tally of total births last year, they counted about 20,000 shy of the benchmark. The death count, meanwhile, fell at around 1.3 million.

Young people have started “granny dumping.” It describes the unfortunate practice of younger citizens bringing their senile elders to hospitals or charities and essentially abandoning them — generally because they can’t afford care anymore.

About one-fifth of all crimes committed in Japan are done by the elderly. Most of them are petty theft and shoplifting.

As crime rates among the elderly rise, prisons have effectively turned into nursing homes. Guards are made to bathe the inmates and help them get dressed, and experts say living conditions are too good to keep recidivism rates down.

Over time, low fertility rates (without additional immigration) could mean actual extinction for an entire country.

Japanese researchers recently pinned down the expected date of extinction, which, according to the latest fertility rates, is August 12, 3776.

Words to Learn 相关词汇

【群体】qǔntǐ cohort a group of people

【累犯】lěifàn recidivism a tendency to relapse into a previous condition or mode of behavior, especially relapse into criminal behavior

日本正面临经济学家所谓的“人口定时炸弹”威胁。

受制于低生育率和低消费性开支的恶性循环,日本的经济在过去25年正逐渐缩水。人们的寿命变长了,老人们滚雪球一样的社保负担被转嫁到了年轻一代的身上,而年轻一代又没有生育出可以替代自己的孩子,于是这种恶性循环进一步加剧。

2016年,日本1.27亿人口中,大约有65000位百岁老人。根据《朝日新闻》今年9月报道的新数据,2017年百岁老人总数达到了67824位。日本的百岁老人占比是全世界最高的,每10万人中就有4.8个百岁老人。在百岁老人总数最多的美国,每10万人中才有2.2个百岁老人。

自从2011年以来,日本成人纸尿裤的销量就超过了婴儿纸尿裤。

这一潮流反映出老年群体是多么庞大:日本65岁以上的人比其他任何年龄段的人都要多。日本共有1.27亿人口,而老年人就占了26.7%。

自从1899年以来,日本每年出生的婴儿人数都超过了100万 —— 这个趋势一致持续到2016年。

去年政府官员开展了年度出生人口统计,发现出生人口比基准少了2万人。与此同时,死亡人口比往年减少了130万人。

年轻人开始“弃老”。这指的是年轻人将家里的老人送到医院或福利机构,然后就此撒手不管 —— 通常是因为他们再也负担不起赡养费用。

日本约有五分之一的犯罪活动是老年人作案。其中大多数是小额偷盗和入店行窃。随着老年人作案率的上升,监狱实际上正转变成养老院。监狱看守不得不帮囚犯洗澡穿衣,专家说,监狱里的生活条件太好了,所以很难将累犯率降下来。

随着时间流逝,低生育率(又没有移民流入)将意味着整个国家的消失。

日本研究人员已经算出了日本人灭绝的时间,根据最新的生育率来估算将是3776年8月12日。(Chinadaily.com.cn)

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