-
Advertorial
-
FOCUS
-
Guide
-
Lifestyle
-
Tech and Vogue
-
TechandScience
-
CHTF Special
-
Nanhan
-
Futian Today
-
Hit Bravo
-
Special Report
-
Junior Journalist Program
-
World Economy
-
Opinion
-
Diversions
-
Hotels
-
Movies
-
People
-
Person of the week
-
Weekend
-
Photo Highlights
-
Currency Focus
-
Kaleidoscope
-
Tech and Science
-
News Picks
-
Yes Teens
-
Fun
-
Budding Writers
-
Campus
-
Glamour
-
News
-
Digital Paper
-
Food drink
-
Majors_Forum
-
Speak Shenzhen
-
Business_Markets
-
Shopping
-
Travel
-
Restaurants
-
Hotels
-
Investment
-
Yearend Review
-
In depth
-
Leisure Highlights
-
Sports
-
World
-
QINGDAO TODAY
-
Entertainment
-
Business
-
Markets
-
Culture
-
China
-
Shenzhen
-
Important news
在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy
US tax reform to weigh Asian central banks
    2017-December-21  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

A MAMMOTH tax package coming in the United States will add pressure on Asian central banks to tighten while aiding the region’s exports, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The tax bill will probably be approved and should support Goldman’s outlook for Asia in the coming year for sustained solid growth, inflation coming off from low levels and interest rate increases by most regional central banks, according to a research note released Tuesday by Andrew Tilton, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

“Events outside the region — particularly in the United States — are contributing to the reflationary narrative,” Tilton wrote. “The fiscal boost to U.S. growth will aid Asian exports on the margin but has hawkish implications for the Fed” and, in turn, interest rates in Asia.

The tax bill has largely been priced in by financial markets, he said. In addition to the monetary policy effect, it could prompt two additional, though smaller, shifts in economic activity and profits.

If the U.S. marginal corporate tax rate declines to 21 percent from 35 percent — a move to one of the lowest in major economies from being among the most burdensome — some shifts in economic activity out of Asia are possible, Tilton wrote. However, he judged that most firms doing business in the region won’t be convinced to move out on tax policy alone.

Second, while repatriation of overseas profits can be seen as a risk for Asia amid more attractive tax rates in the United States, most of those already are priced in U.S. dollars and the bulk also would be flowing out of Europe or other developed markets.

Outside of U.S. tax legislation, there has already been a bevy of factors supporting Goldman’s calls for steady growth, reflation and monetary normalization in Asia for 2018. Growth across the region has turned higher, and India is poised to add more fuel next year as medium-term setbacks from demonetization and the goods-and-services tax fade.

The forecasts are in line with what most economists have penciled in for Southeast Asia’s biggest economies, according to Bloomberg survey data. Most of the region’s top six economies are set to sustain 2017 momentum, led by the Philippines and Vietnam. Four of the six should see at least benign increases in consumer price inflation, the surveys show.

Food prices may increase much faster in 2018 and this is playing out, starting in places like India, Goldman said. Faster growth relative to potential could spur price growth in economies such as the Philippines and Malaysia, it estimated. (SD-Agencies)

 

深圳报业集团版权所有, 未经授权禁止复制; Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved.
Shenzhen Daily E-mail:szdaily@szszd.com.cn